Carney’s stunning victory marks new chapter in Canadian politics amid U.S. tensions

Department of Research, Studies and International News -01-05-2025

In a dramatic and unexpected political turnaround, Canada’s Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term in government, propelled by the leadership of Mark Carney and fueled, ironically, by threats from south of the border. During his triumphant victory speech, Carney directly addressed the role of former U.S. President Donald Trump, declaring, “He wanted to break us, so America could own us. But that will never happen.”

This defiant message from Carney, who only recently took the reins of the party following Justin Trudeau’s departure, struck a chord with voters across the country. The Liberals, once believed to be in terminal decline, managed an extraordinary comeback, falling just short of a majority government, but winning enough seats to govern with external support. Their main legislative partner is expected to remain the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), despite its devastating electoral performance.

Carney, a former central banker with no prior electoral experience, entered the race under enormous pressure. After serving as prime minister for a mere nine days, he called a snap election, a bold gamble that many viewed as political suicide. Instead, the election became a proving ground for his leadership and vision.

Throughout the campaign, U.S. interference and Trump’s incendiary rhetoric played a significant role in galvanizing public support for the Liberals. Trump’s provocative remarks, including his suggestion that Canada could be annexed as America’s “51st state,” and referring to Trudeau as merely a “governor,” sparked national indignation. Carney capitalized on this sentiment, promising to reorient Canada’s international relations and to no longer rely on a system that had once depended so heavily on the United States.

“We’ve moved past the initial shock of betrayal, but the lesson is one we will carry forward,” Carney stated, as he emphasized the need for an independent Canadian foreign policy in a shifting global landscape.

Despite their overall improved performance, the Conservative Party suffered a stunning setback when their leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost the parliamentary seat he had held since 2004. Although he vowed to remain party leader, the defeat is expected to intensify internal disputes and prompt a thorough reassessment of the party’s strategy. “We will continue to hold the government accountable and always put Canada first,” Poilievre told supporters.

Meanwhile, the NDP faced an electoral collapse of historic proportions. Party leader Jagmeet Singh not only failed to retain his seat but also announced his resignation following what is being called the party’s worst-ever result. The NDP lost official party status, failing to meet the minimum seat threshold, which strips them of significant parliamentary privileges and public funding.

The results of this election are remarkable for several reasons. Not only did the Liberals defy predictions of collapse, but the contest also saw the two major parties, Liberals and Conservatives, dominate the vote share to a degree not seen in decades, leaving smaller parties like the NDP and Bloc Québécois with negligible influence.

The Liberals’ resurgence under Carney was nothing short of astonishing. Just months earlier, party insiders feared they would be reduced to a minor opposition force. With Trudeau’s tenure marred by infighting and declining public approval, the party seemed destined for electoral irrelevance. However, Carney’s entry brought a renewed sense of purpose and clarity. “We were finished in December,” said former justice minister David Lametti. “Now we’re forming government again, and that’s thanks to Mark.”

Political analysts have pointed to the unique dynamics of this election. David Coletto of polling firm Abacus remarked on the unprecedented shift in voter sentiment, calling it a “complete reset.” According to Coletto, two main factors drove this transformation: a deep disenchantment with Trudeau and a perception that Trump posed a real and present danger to Canadian sovereignty.

Looking ahead, Carney’s immediate task will be to unite a politically fractured nation. In his speech, he praised his opponents and pledged to govern inclusively. “Let’s end the division and the anger. We are all Canadians, and my government will work for everyone.”

The new prime minister will face a challenging international climate and a complicated relationship with the United States. Nevertheless, Carney appears determined to assert Canada’s independence and redefine its place in the world.

“I saw how Carney carried himself,” said Ottawa resident and campaign volunteer Ian Laroque. “He wasn’t polished, but he was principled, and that’s exactly the kind of leadership we need right now.”