Cardinals enter historic conclave to elect successor to Pope Francis amid deep divisions

This week marks a pivotal moment for the Roman Catholic Church as 133 cardinals from around the world assemble in Vatican City to elect a new pope. The conclave, convened under the magnificent ceiling of Michelangelo’s The Last Judgment in the Sistine Chapel, is not only the largest in history but also one of the most unpredictable.

The death of Pope Francis at age 88 last month has left a complex legacy. His tenure was marked by progressive reforms and efforts to modernize the Church, but those very changes have caused rifts within the College of Cardinals. While some members champion Francis’s vision of a more inclusive Church, others are determined to reverse course, pushing for a return to more traditional doctrine and governance.

Since April 28, the electors have been meeting daily in pre-conclave sessions designed to foster dialogue and reflect on the Church’s future. However, reaching consensus has proven difficult. As Indonesian Cardinal Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo noted upon arriving in Rome, there’s a sense of disorientation among participants. “We’ve heard many opinions. Drawing clear conclusions isn’t easy,” he said after listening to speeches from over 50 fellow cardinals.

On Tuesday, the cardinals met for a final preparatory session before relocating to the Casa Santa Maria, their temporary residence during the voting process. Once sequestered, they relinquish their phones and remain isolated from the outside world. Secrecy is paramount, everyone involved, from clergy to cooks, is bound by an oath of confidentiality.

The voting process begins with two rounds of ballots each day. After every session, smoke rises from a chimney above the Sistine Chapel: black if no decision is reached, white if a new pope has been elected. Should voting stretch beyond three days without consensus, a day of reflection is scheduled before ballots resume.

The speculation surrounding the next pontiff has intensified, with over 20 names circulating as potential successors. A recent favorite is Cardinal Robert Prevost, an American praised for his balanced leadership and attentive approach. His emergence may overshadow other moderates such as Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, known for his diplomatic skill but viewed by some as uninspiring.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often referred to as “the Asian Francis,” is another prominent contender. A passionate reformist, Tagle has faced scrutiny over his handling of abuse cases, a concern shared by critics of several other candidates.

Several other reform-minded figures are also in the spotlight, including Italian cardinals Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, as well as Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg, the UK’s Timothy Radcliffe, and Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny.

On the more conservative side stand figures like Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary and Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, both vocal critics of Pope Francis’s policies. While they are not frontrunners, hardline conservatives like Raymond Burke of the United States and Gerhard Müller of Germany are actively campaigning for a pope who would reassert doctrinal orthodoxy. Müller has even warned of a potential schism should the Church not return to its roots.

Nonetheless, the unpredictable nature of papal elections leaves room for surprises. The saying “he who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal” still holds weight. Pope Francis himself, formerly Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, was not widely expected to win in 2013 until consensus gradually formed around him.

Despite their divisions, the cardinals appear united on several key principles. According to Vatican officials, they agree on the need for the new pope to be a unifying figure—someone capable of guiding a fragmented and uncertain world while restoring cohesion within the Church. During a press briefing, one Vatican representative emphasized that the new pontiff must be a “bridge and guide for a disoriented humanity.”

Dutch journalist Andrea Vreede, a correspondent for NOS, pointed out that many electors are unfamiliar with each other due to Pope Francis’s lack of regular cardinal meetings. “This adds to the unpredictability,” she noted, “but also strengthens the shared desire among cardinals for a more involved role in the Church’s governance.”

German journalist Severina Bartonitschek of KNA expressed her belief that the cardinals already have a leading candidate in mind. In her view, the most pressing mission for the next pope will be internal unity. “Every pope faces this challenge,” she said, “but in this case, it’s critical. Beyond evangelization, he must confront unresolved issues like the sexual abuse crisis. We need a leader brave enough to tackle these painful truths.”

As the conclave begins, the eyes of 1.4 billion Catholics around the world remain fixed on the Vatican, awaiting the signal that a new chapter in the Church’s history has begun.