Bridging the Divide: US-Russia ceasefire talks face obstacles and hopes for progress

Department of Research, Studies and International News 25-03-2025

The latest round of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine has underscored the stark differences in expectations between the two powers. While Washington remains optimistic about achieving a meaningful breakthrough, Moscow has cautioned that significant challenges remain. The discussions, held in Saudi Arabia, aim to establish a 30-day ceasefire focused primarily on energy infrastructure and maritime security in the Black Sea. However, deep-seated disagreements threaten to derail any swift resolution.

A Push for Ceasefire Amid Diverging Agendas

The United States, spearheaded by special envoy Steve Witkoff, has pushed for a broad ceasefire by April 20, though officials acknowledge that the timeline is flexible due to the complexities involved. Witkoff expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to peace, stating, “I feel that he wants peace,” in an interview with Fox News. He further suggested that progress in securing a Black Sea ceasefire could naturally lead to a broader cessation of hostilities.

Ukrainian officials, including Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, described the talks as “constructive,” highlighting energy infrastructure as a key area of focus. Meanwhile, the White House’s National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, indicated that discussions were also touching on humanitarian concerns, including the fate of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.

Kremlin’s Skepticism and the Grain Deal Dispute

Despite the positive signals from Washington, the Kremlin has remained cautious. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that “difficult negotiations” lie ahead, emphasizing that the talks are only at their initial stage. Moscow’s primary concern in its discussions with the US revolves around the possible revival of the Black Sea grain deal, which previously allowed safe passage for Ukrainian agricultural exports. Russia withdrew from the agreement in 2023, citing unfulfilled commitments from Western nations to ease restrictions on Russian agricultural exports.

Even as negotiations continue, the war has shown no signs of abating. Ukraine reported that Russian forces launched 147 drone attacks over the weekend, killing at least seven people, including a child. In response, Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted 97 drones, with additional countermeasures mitigating further damage. On the battlefield, reports indicate that Russian troops have captured the village of Sribne in Donetsk, while Ukrainian forces reclaimed the settlement of Nadia in Luhansk.

The continued hostilities raise concerns over whether a ceasefire can be effectively implemented. Both sides have accused each other of violating past agreements, and the fluid nature of territorial control complicates peace efforts.

Witkoff’s Controversial Statements and Diplomatic Ramifications

Witkoff’s role as the chief negotiator has attracted scrutiny, particularly following his comments praising Putin and downplaying the Russian leader’s expansionist ambitions. In a widely discussed interview, Witkoff remarked, “I don’t see that he wants to take all of Europe,” asserting that fears of a larger Russian invasion were overstated. His remarks about Putin’s intelligence and diplomatic gestures, such as gifting a portrait of former President Donald Trump, have sparked criticism, with some analysts accusing him of echoing Russian propaganda.

Additionally, Witkoff’s claims that Ukraine had agreed to hold elections despite martial law restrictions have raised eyebrows. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits national elections during wartime, and logistical concerns, including the potential for Russian attacks on polling stations, make the feasibility of elections questionable.

The Future of Russian-Occupied Territories

A central issue in the negotiations remains the status of Ukrainian regions occupied or annexed by Russia. Witkoff’s attempts to reference these regions during his interview revealed gaps in his knowledge, as he misidentified Crimea as one of the four occupied territories. His assertion that these regions are “Russian-speaking” and that referendums indicate a preference for Russian rule has been widely disputed. International observers, including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have deemed the referendums illegitimate, citing coercion and mass displacement of residents.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly rejected any recognition of Russia’s annexation claims, maintaining that these territories remain an integral part of Ukraine. The ongoing conflict and continued Russian military presence in these areas pose significant obstacles to any lasting peace agreement.

A Path Forward: Cooperation or Continued Conflict?

Despite the challenges, Witkoff envisions a scenario where the US and Russia can leverage the ceasefire to improve bilateral relations and collaborate on global issues. He has proposed joint efforts in energy policies, Arctic cooperation, and artificial intelligence as potential areas for cooperation. However, critics argue that any normalization of relations with Russia should be contingent on a complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.

For now, the ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia represent a tentative step toward de-escalation. Whether these negotiations yield tangible results or fall victim to the same deadlocks that have plagued previous attempts remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the gap between US and Russian expectations must be bridged before any meaningful peace can be achieved.