Department of Security and Military Strategic Research and Studies 24-10-2024

In a bid to halt the escalating violence between Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to revive ceasefire negotiations. Blinken also emphasized the importance of increasing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians trapped in Gaza as the war drags on.

Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday, marking his 11th visit to the Middle East since the Gaza conflict erupted more than a year ago. This trip follows Israel’s recent escalation of hostilities with Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanon-based militant group backed by Iran. However, his visit began amidst heightened tensions, with Hezbollah firing medium-range missiles toward Tel Aviv, briefly shutting down Ben Gurion Airport, where Blinken landed.

During his discussions with Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Blinken highlighted the opportunity created by Israel’s recent military action, specifically the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. According to U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, Blinken urged Netanyahu to use this moment to end the ongoing war in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages.

Miller stated that Blinken stressed the necessity of leveraging Israel’s tactical success to end the conflict, emphasizing a solution that ensures lasting security for both Israelis and Palestinians. He also pushed for Israel to enhance the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, ensuring that critical resources reach civilians across the region, many of whom have been displaced by the intense fighting.

Netanyahu’s office acknowledged that Sinwar’s death might facilitate the return of hostages and help achieve Israel’s broader military objectives. However, the possibility of a ceasefire remained off the table, even as Gaza lies in ruins and its 2.3 million residents face mounting humanitarian crises.

The talks between Blinken and Netanyahu also revisited a 2006 UN resolution intended to restore calm along the Israel-Lebanon border following the last major Israel-Hezbollah conflict. This resolution, which has seen little progress, seeks to return displaced civilians to their homes on both sides of the border.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah categorically rejected any talks with Israel while active hostilities continue. The group took responsibility for a recent drone attack targeting Netanyahu’s private residence, further complicating the U.S. efforts to mediate peace.

The Israeli Prime Minister echoed the need for change in Lebanon’s security and political landscape, noting that such change is essential for Israeli citizens to safely return to their homes, which have come under constant Hezbollah rocket fire.

Shifting Dynamics in the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has steadily intensified, with the armed group launching increasingly aggressive attacks in recent weeks. Early on Tuesday, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing rockets at two Israeli military bases near Tel Aviv and a naval installation in Haifa. In response, Israel declared a state of emergency in the Tel Aviv area. One person was injured by debris from the strikes in the northern town of Ma’agan Michael.

For the first time, Hezbollah has employed medium-range missiles in the conflict, signaling a strategic shift in its approach to Israel. Al Jazeera’s Imran Khan, reporting from southern Lebanon, noted that this could mark a new phase of sustained, large-scale attacks involving medium-range weaponry.

In Lebanon, the conflict has had devastating consequences. The Ministry of Public Health reported 18 fatalities, including four children, and over 60 injured in an overnight Israeli airstrike near Rafik Hariri University Hospital in southern Beirut.

Limited Expectations for Blinken’s Visit

The surge of violence surrounding Blinken’s visit underscores the limited hopes for a meaningful breakthrough. Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Jamjoom, reporting from Amman, Jordan, described the mood as pessimistic, with Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders maintaining a hardline stance against ceasefire negotiations.

Former Israeli Justice Minister Yossi Beilin voiced cautious optimism, however, expressing hope that Blinken’s visit might open the door for future ceasefire talks. “It’s time to end this war; we are all paying too high a price,” Beilin remarked.

Blinken is set to continue his diplomatic efforts in Jordan, where he will discuss ways to ensure humanitarian aid reaches the Gaza Strip, as the humanitarian crisis there worsens with each passing day.