Blinken Signals Possible U.S. Approval forUkraine’s Use of Long-Range Weapons Against Russia

Department of Strategic Security and Military Research and Studies 12-09-2024

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has hinted that restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range Western-supplied weaponry against key military targets in Russia may soon be lifted. Although the decision is believed to have already been made behind closed doors, Blinken’s comments in Kyiv suggest the U.S. is prepared to further adapt its policies in response to the evolving situation in Ukraine.

Speaking alongside UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Blinken reiterated that the U.S. has been flexible since the start of the conflict and will continue to adjust as necessary. Both officials plan to brief their respective leaders, President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, following discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Recent developments, including Iran’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia, have influenced strategic thinking in Washington and London. Lammy characterized this development as a dangerous escalation, pointing to an emerging alliance between Russia, Iran, and North Korea. He also urged China to avoid aligning itself with these nations, which he referred to as “a group of renegades.”

Reports indicate that a decision allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles on Russian targets has already been made, although no public announcement is expected during Starmer’s upcoming meeting with Biden. The two leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine’s future and the potential resolution of the war, focusing on strategic considerations rather than specific weapon systems.

Sources suggest that Blinken and Lammy’s visit to Kyiv is an indication that positive decisions have already been made regarding Ukraine’s access to long-range weaponry. However, there is reluctance to make public statements that could provoke further escalation. While there may still be restrictions on the use of these missiles, officials are cautiously optimistic about Ukraine’s ability to target airfields and command centers within Russia.

During their Kyiv visit, Blinken and Lammy underscored their nations’ commitment to Ukraine’s success. Lammy also highlighted the UK’s ongoing military support, including the provision of Brimstone missiles and AS-90 self-propelled guns. He emphasized that the fight in Ukraine is not only about its sovereignty but also the security of Europe and the West.

Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that the U.S. and UK will fully lift their objections to long-range strikes. Some frustration had been voiced over what was perceived as a cautious approach, particularly from the new UK government, which was seen as waiting for the U.S. to take the lead. However, the U.S. Department of State has reportedly been more receptive to Ukraine’s requests than other parts of the U.S. government.

Meanwhile, senior lawmakers in Washington have been pressing Biden to remove restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles, warning that continued limitations would hinder Kyiv’s efforts to win the war. They argued that sophisticated Western weaponry could compel Russia to defend its rear, shifting the dynamics of the conflict.

Despite the ongoing debate, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently downplayed the potential impact of long-range strikes on the war’s outcome. He pointed out that Russia has already repositioned its glide bombs beyond the reach of Ukraine’s current capabilities. Nonetheless, Ukraine has demonstrated increasing effectiveness with domestically-produced long-range drones, including recent successful strikes on Moscow and other key Russian locations.

Experts caution that targeting Russian airbases deep within its territory remains a significant challenge. However, U.S.-supplied Atacms missiles, particularly those equipped with cluster bomblets, could enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike critical infrastructure. Russian officials, meanwhile, have vowed to destroy any new deliveries of such missiles.