Department of Security and Military Strategic Research and Studies 22-10-2024

The White House has revealed that U.S. President Joe Biden is gravely concerned about the disclosure of classified documents detailing Israel’s plans to possibly attack Iran. The leaked intelligence, which outlines satellite-based assessments of Israeli military movements, surfaced on the messaging platform Telegram last week.

While the origin of the leak remains uncertain, White House spokesperson John Kirby emphasized that the release of such sensitive information is “unacceptable.” It is still unclear if the documents were leaked from within the government or obtained through hacking, but their public release has raised serious concerns in Washington. Kirby stated, “The president remains deeply troubled by the exposure of classified materials. This is not how it should happen, and when it does, it is wholly unacceptable.”

The leaked files reportedly contain a detailed analysis of satellite images showing Israeli military activities, specifically the handling of air-launched ballistic missiles and covert drone operations earlier this month. These activities, according to the leaked assessments, are believed to be part of Israel’s preparations for a possible attack on Iran. However, the analysis, reportedly prepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, cautioned that it could not provide a definitive conclusion about the exact scale or timing of the Israeli military’s plans.

Numerous U.S. media outlets have cited unnamed government officials who have confirmed the authenticity of the documents. The materials first appeared on the Telegram channel “Middle East Spectator,” which shares commentary on regional issues. While the channel has been accused of supporting Iran and its allies, it has denied any connection to the Iranian government.

 Ongoing Investigation and Response

In response to the breach, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that a formal investigation into how the classified documents were leaked is already underway. Johnson mentioned on Sunday that he expects to receive a detailed briefing on the situation soon. The U.S. has faced a number of significant leaks in recent years, most notably in 2023 when classified military intelligence was leaked online, an incident linked to a member of the National Guard.

Amid these concerns, President Biden expressed some optimism on Friday about the possibility of preventing further escalation between Israel and Iran. While tensions between the two nations remain high, Biden suggested that there is an “opportunity” to avoid continued tit-for-tat strikes. Israel is widely believed to be planning a military assault on Iran, while Tehran has vowed to retaliate in the event of any new Israeli strikes. During a recent trip to Germany, Biden acknowledged being aware of Israel’s plans but refrained from going into details, telling reporters, “I am aware of how Israel intends to respond and the timing,” without providing further explanation.

Although Biden has not publicly unveiled any specific diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from intensifying, his administration’s stance has been generally cautious. The president has previously indicated that he does not support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear or oil facilities, a position he reiterated when questioned about Israel’s response plans. When asked if he understood Israel’s intended actions and their timing, Biden confirmed, “Yes and yes.”

 Rising Tensions Between Iran and Israel

The strained relationship between Israel and Iran took a sharp turn on October 1, when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at military targets in Israel. This was in retaliation for a series of assassinations, including the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, as well as an Iranian general in Beirut. These events have significantly escalated tensions, prompting both sides to prepare for further confrontation.

Following Biden’s recent remarks, Iranian officials expressed anger, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticizing the U.S. president’s comments. Araghchi took to social media, stating that anyone with foreknowledge or involvement in Israel’s planned attacks should be held accountable for the resulting consequences. “Those who provide the means or support for such recklessness must be responsible for any potential casualties,” he wrote in response to Biden’s statements.

Iran has been clear about its stance, with a military source quoted by Iran’s Tasnim news agency warning that any Israeli attack would be met with a “decisive” and overwhelming response. The source noted that the retaliation would exceed Israel’s expectations, further amplifying concerns about a potential conflict between the two nations.