Are Washington elites in panic? The truth behind the Google Search trends controversy

A surge in Google searches for terms like “criminal defense lawyer,” “RICO law,” and “Swiss bank” in Washington, DC, has sparked a frenzy among supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Many within the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement claim that these trends indicate widespread fear among Washington elites, suggesting that corrupt officials are bracing for legal action under Trump’s renewed influence. However, a deeper analysis of the data reveals a more nuanced reality—one that doesn’t necessarily support these conspiracy-driven claims.

The MAGA Narrative: A City in Fear?

The controversy began when the X (formerly Twitter) account Libs of TikTok, a prominent voice in conservative circles, shared screenshots from Google Trends, highlighting the increase in searches for crime-related terms. “PANIC IN DC,” the post declared, implying that high-ranking officials were desperately seeking legal advice and ways to move money offshore. The post quickly went viral, garnering millions of views, likes, and shares.

This theory was amplified by notable MAGA figures, including former Congressman Matt Gaetz, who declared on One America News Network, “The Beltway is in full panic mode. Google search trends prove it, and the guilty are sweating bullets like they are auditioning for a mob flick.” Conservative podcaster Josie Glabach, known as the “Redheaded Libertarian,” echoed the sentiment, suggesting that “dumb criminals” in Washington were exposing their guilt by googling legal escape routes.

For many Trump supporters, this supposed panic aligns with their long-held belief in a “Deep State” conspiracy—the idea that an unaccountable bureaucratic elite secretly controls the government. According to this perspective, Trump’s return to power threatens to dismantle this corrupt system, forcing its members to prepare for legal battles or even flee the country.

Trump, Musk, and the Government Purge Theory

The timing of these claims coincides with a sweeping review of the federal government led by Trump allies, including tech billionaire Elon Musk. Under the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), thousands of government employees have been dismissed or forced to resign across various federal agencies, including the Department of State, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Supporters of these drastic cuts argue that they are necessary to eliminate government waste and corruption. However, critics say the layoffs are politically motivated and undermine the functionality of essential government institutions. The wave of firings has led to legal challenges from federal employees, with unions such as the American Federation of Government Employees stepping in to fight mass terminations.

For MAGA followers, the firings and Google search trends appear interconnected. Many believe the dismissals have exposed a network of corrupt officials now scrambling to protect themselves. This belief is further fueled by conspiracy theorists who claim that Washington, DC, is experiencing a moment of reckoning, with powerful figures desperately searching for offshore banking options and legal loopholes to avoid prosecution.

The Reality: What Google Trends Actually Shows

While the claims of Washington elites panicking over potential arrests are compelling to some, the actual data tells a different story. Google Trends does show a relative increase in searches for terms like “criminal defense lawyer” and “RICO law” in the DC area, but this does not necessarily mean that government insiders are the ones making these searches.

Google Trends does not provide absolute search numbers, only relative popularity over time. A spike in searches means that interest in a term has increased compared to previous periods, but it does not indicate who is conducting the searches or why.

Mihaela Mihailescu, a PhD researcher at the University of Bath who studies internet politics, cautions against drawing sweeping conclusions from the data. “The claim that a sudden surge in Google searches for terms like ‘RICO law’ and ‘Swiss bank’ indicates a widespread exodus of corrupt bureaucrats is based on little more than speculation,” she explains. “We have zero evidence that these searches are even coming from DC insiders.”

Cyberthreat expert Wietze Beukema further points out the limitations of Google Trends, noting that the tool does not reflect actual search volumes. “Google Trends is a non-scientific tool meant to provide high-level insights into search patterns,” he explains. “It does not give absolute numbers, only relative index figures.” This means that while a term may appear to be trending, the total number of searches might still be low.

Additionally, Google Trends data can be influenced by various factors, including media coverage, social media discussions, and even bot activity. VPNs can also distort the geographical origin of searches, making it difficult to determine whether the spike in search activity truly reflects concern among Washington elites or is simply the result of heightened online discussions.

Correlation vs. Causation: A Classic Misinterpretation

One of the fundamental errors in the MAGA interpretation of Google Trends data is the assumption that correlation equals causation. Just because searches for legal terms increased around the time of Trump’s return to power does not mean they were conducted by panicked government officials fearing prosecution.

There are many potential explanations for the spike in searches. It could be due to increased media coverage of Trump’s legal battles, curiosity driven by online debates, or even intentional efforts to manipulate Google Trends results to fuel conspiracy theories.

Beukema suggests that external factors, such as advertising campaigns by law firms or general public interest in legal issues, could also explain the trend. “Searches for criminal defense lawyers in the DC area could have as prosaic an explanation as an ad campaign,” he notes.

Moreover, Mihailescu highlights the role of social media in amplifying misinformation. “Much of this is likely a mix of media-driven curiosity, online speculation, and the internet’s favorite pastime—doomsday prepping for imaginary scenarios,” she says.