International News Department 20-12-2024

The situation in Syria has drastically shifted following the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This analysis examines the resurgence of ISIS, the geopolitical responses from Turkey and Israel, the challenges posed by the Al-Hol camp, and the broader implications for the balance of power in the region. It also considers Syria’s enduring strategic importance and the perspectives of key global and regional actors like the United States and Russia.

1. The Resurgence of ISIS

2. Escalation of ISIS Activity

Following the regime’s collapse, ISIS exploited the resulting security vacuum. Between December 8, 2024, and early 2025, the group launched six high-profile attacks, killing 70 individuals, including 52 military personnel. This surge reflects ISIS’s operational adaptability, shifting from territorial control to decentralized guerrilla tactics.

Geographic Focus: ISIS activities are concentrated in Syria’s desert regions, particularly around Al-Sukhnah, Palmyra, and Deir ez-Zor. The group’s estimated strength of 1,200 fighters is distributed across the Syrian Desert and areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

1. Impact on Energy Infrastructure

ISIS has targeted strategic assets like the Shaer Gas Field, underlining its potential to destabilize economic recovery in post-Assad Syria. Such actions highlight the group’s ability to command media attention and exacerbate insecurity.

1. Challenges in Containment

ISIS’s operational model relies on clandestine cells, making containment challenging for fractured governing authorities and local militias. With over 100 attacks since the start of 2024, the group’s resilience raises serious concerns about regional stability.

1. Geopolitical Responses

2. Turkey’s Position

Turkey views the post-Assad environment as an opportunity to strengthen its regional influence. It has expressed willingness to combat ISIS and manage related detention facilities but ties this offer to its broader strategy of dismantling the SDF and Kurdish militias it deems terrorist entities.

Turkish Ambitions: Ankara’s long-term goals include territorial influence over northern Syria and curbing Kurdish autonomy. Turkey has accused Kurdish factions of facilitating ISIS resurgence by destabilizing the region.

Potential Risks: Turkish operations risk fueling further unrest, which could inadvertently empower ISIS.

1. Israel’s Perspective

Israel is closely monitoring ISIS activities and the broader jihadist presence near its borders. Analysts warn that ISIS may emulate its Afghanistan strategy by launching assaults on new authorities in Damascus.

Strategic Concerns: The proximity of jihadist factions to the Golan Heights raises alarms about potential incursions or escalated attacks.

Policy Approach: Israel prioritizes intelligence-driven operations to mitigate threats while leveraging regional instability to weaken Iran’s influence.

III. The Al-Hol Camp Conundrum

1. Humanitarian and Security Challenges

The Al-Hol camp remains a hotbed of extremism, housing over 50,000 individuals, including ISIS families. Conditions within the camp foster radicalization, with over 150 murders reported in recent years.

Structural Vulnerabilities: The camp is poorly managed, with insufficient oversight, allowing extremist networks to operate freely.

Potential for Escalation: Renewed conflict between Turkey and Kurdish forces could lead to a breakdown in camp security, resulting in mass escapes of ISIS affiliates.

1. Regional and Global Implications

The international community fears that instability in Al-Hol could rejuvenate ISIS as a transnational threat. Both Turkey and the United States recognize the camp’s symbolic and operational significance to ISIS’s survival.

1. Broader Implications and Strategic Realignments

2. Syria’s Strategic Importance

Syria’s geopolitical centrality, often described as a “fixed aircraft carrier,” makes it a focal point for global power struggles. Its location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East has historically attracted international interest.

U.S. Objectives: The United States aims to dismantle Syrian resistance to Western-led initiatives, such as the Abraham Accords, while containing Iranian influence.

Russia’s Role: For Moscow, Syria is a critical ally in countering NATO’s encroachment. Losing Syria would weaken Russia’s foothold in the Middle East and threaten its broader geostrategic ambitions.

1. Impacts on the Axis of Resistance

Syria’s destabilization could ripple across its allies in the “Axis of Resistance,” including Iran, Hezbollah, and factions in Iraq. Conversely, its resilience has historically disrupted U.S. and Israeli plans for the region.

The Path Forward

The fall of Assad’s regime has intensified Syria’s fragmentation, amplifying existing threats like ISIS while creating opportunities for regional actors like Turkey and Israel. The international community must address Syria’s complex realities, balancing counterterrorism efforts with sustainable reconstruction strategies. Failure to do so risks perpetuating cycles of violence and instability, with global consequences.

Syria remains a linchpin in Middle Eastern geopolitics, a reality underscored by the enduring interest of global powers. Achieving stability in Syria will require collaborative efforts, encompassing political solutions, security reforms, and humanitarian interventions.