Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 14-10-2025

Violent confrontations along the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier have escalated sharply, with both sides claiming heavy losses in the latest wave of border clashes. Islamabad asserts it eliminated over 200 Afghan fighters, while Kabul counters that 58 Pakistani troops were killed in retaliatory strikes.

Clash of narratives

Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Taliban-led Afghan government, dismissed Islamabad’s account and maintained that Pakistani forces suffered 58 fatalities and 30 wounded. He also declared that Afghan forces seized “a significant amount” of military equipment. Muhammadow said nine Taliban operatives died in the nighttime operations, and nearly a dozen were injured.

Pakistan’s military, however, stated that 23 of its servicemen, described as “brave sons,” lost their lives amid the clashes. In response, Pakistan has closed its border with Afghanistan and publicly rejected Kabul’s version of events.

Hostilities ignited following a series of explosions in Afghanistan on Thursday, attacks for which the Taliban directly blamed Pakistan. Islamabad, while not claiming responsibility, warned of consequences should assaults on Pakistani soil persist.

In a show of retaliation, Taliban forces alleged they captured three Pakistani border posts in Kunar and Helmand provinces. According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence spokesperson Enayatullah Khwarizmi, these actions served as reprisal for Pakistan’s “repeated violations,” including airstrikes into Afghan territory.

Conversely, Pakistani state media reported that Islamabad’s forces seized 19 Afghan border posts, saying Taliban fighters either surrendered or retreated. A televised broadcast showed Afghan posts engulfed in flames, with Taliban fighters allegedly surrendering in Pakistan’s Kurram region.

Pakistan Television claimed that Pakistani forces destroyed multiple Taliban strongholds near the border, including Manojba camp battalion headquarters, Jandusar Post, Turkmenzai camp, and Kharchar Fort. The operations were described as precise strikes targeting militant hideouts.

Diplomatic alarm and regional response

The renewed violence has prompted appeals for restraint from regional powers. Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have urged both sides to de-escalate. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for measured action, emphasising regional stability as contingent on calmer relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia reinforced this posture, pressing for dialogue and prudence between Islamabad and Kabul.

Observers note that this confrontation marks one of the most dramatic escalations in recent months. It comes in the wake of high-profile bombings in Kabul and Paktika province, which Kabul attributed to Pakistani actors. Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, delivered a stern message to parliament: “enough is enough,” warning of retribution if attacks on Pakistan continue.

One unnamed Pakistani source cited by international media claimed a strike had targeted Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), based in Kabul. The Pakistani government has long accused Kabul of offering sanctuary to TTP militants, which Islamabad deems responsible for violence within Pakistan’s borders.

Once relatively cordial, Pakistan–Afghanistan relations have deteriorated sharply over Islamabad’s long-standing allegations that Kabul shelters TTP fighters and other insurgent factions. The TTP, founded in 2007 as a reaction to Pakistan’s cooperation with U.S. operations in Afghanistan, has since become a persistent insurgent threat in Pakistan’s northwest.

Imtiaz Gul, a specialist in South Asian militant movements based in Islamabad, told analysts that the TTP issue is now a decisive fault line in bilateral relations. He warned that the long-term consequences could deepen enmity and instability across the region.

Pakistan itself is under immense pressure. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, August saw a spike in militant violence, 194 people died and over 200 were injured in 143 attacks nationwide, making it one of the deadliest months in more than a decade. The country now ranks second on the Global Terrorism Index, reflecting the profound domestic impact of militant violence.

The military’s counterinsurgency campaigns have displaced tens of thousands of civilians in border districts as Islamabad attempts to erode militant sanctuaries.

Geopolitics and India’s role

The clash broke out during a diplomatic visit by Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi, stoking suspicion and ire in Islamabad. Pakistan accused India of being the “biggest sponsor of terrorism in the region” and implied that the timing of the border conflict was influenced by India’s regional aspirations. India denies these claims and Afghanistan insists it does not permit L New Delhi’s territory to be used for attacks against neighboring states.

For its part, Pakistan voiced concerns over the apparent strategic alignment between Kabul and New Delhi, a development Islamabad views as antagonistic. India, confident in its diplomatic positioning, has repeatedly dismissed Pakistan’s allegations as baseless.

Outlook: A region on edge

The renewed hostilities highlight the fragility of Pakistan–Afghanistan relations, and the grave potential for further escalation. Analysts caution that this could entrench mutual hostility and perpetuate cycles of retaliation.

While regional actors like Iran and Saudi Arabia have urged cool heads, the situation on the ground remains volatile. Pakistan faces the dual challenge of managing internal militant threats and countering external accusations, while Afghanistan, under Taliban governance, seeks to assert sovereignty and repel external intrusion.

Unless both sides seriously engage in dialogue and reciprocal de-escalation, this border conflict risks triggering broader instability across South Asia.