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China Steps Up Maritime Pressure Around Taiwan

China’s increasing maritime patrols around Taiwan are raising concerns over Beijing’s gradual expansion of its presence in the waters surrounding the island. Rather than constituting an open military confrontation, these actions can be understood as part of a broader grey zone strategy aimed at increasing pressure while remaining below the threshold of war.

Ray Powell, founder and director of Sea Light, a maritime transparency project based at Stanford University, described the increase in patrols as part of China’s “boa constrictor strategy”, which seeks to squeeze Taiwan “one coil at a time”. China does not recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty and considers the island part of China, while Taipei rejects Beijing’s claims and maintains that only the Taiwanese people can decide their future.

Taiwan reported 55 sightings of Chinese government vessels around the island in June, including coast guard, maritime safety and “research” vessels. For Taipei, these repeated incursions are part of a strategy to create a record of Chinese jurisdiction over waters that Taiwan considers its own. Taiwan therefore describes the approach as “lawfare”, as continuous state practice can contribute to reinforcing sovereignty and jurisdictional claims under international law.

The international response has largely been critical. The United Kingdom, Germany and France warned that the patrols threaten regional stability, freedom of navigation and the safety of international shipping. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that Washington disagrees with the expanded patrols and considers them destabilizing.

The issue extends beyond Taiwan itself. The United States and its allies are concerned with preserving freedom of navigation and the regional status quo, particularly as China’s methods could potentially be reproduced against Japan or the Philippines. Japan is especially concerned given its position that a Taiwan contingency could have direct security implications for the country.

For China, the objective appears to be both sovereignty consolidation and precedent setting. By making its presence around Taiwan increasingly routine, Beijing can seek to normalize its claims without directly triggering a military confrontation. The situation therefore illustrates how grey zone tactics can gradually alter the regional status quo through sustained pressure rather than open warfare.

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