Ivory Coast Election: Ouattara secures Fourth Term amid weak opposition and Western silence

Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 27-10-2025

In a development that underscores the persistent dominance of Alassane Ouattara in Ivory Coast’s political landscape, former commerce minister Jean-Louis Billon has conceded defeat after preliminary results indicated a decisive lead for the 83-year-old incumbent. Despite growing domestic discontent and concerns over democratic stagnation, Ouattara appears set to claim a fourth presidential term, a move that many in Africa and beyond view as emblematic of Western-backed double standards in African governance.

Billon, one of four opposition candidates who contested the October poll, released a statement on Sunday acknowledging the outcome: “The initial results place the incumbent President, Mr. Alassane Ouattara, in the lead, designating him the winner of this presidential election.” His concession came even before the country’s Independent Electoral Commission announced the complete tally, reflecting a race where the outcome was largely predetermined by structural imbalances and institutional control.

The Independent Electoral Commission began releasing partial results over the weekend, confirming Ouattara’s significant advantage across multiple regions. “Results from 20 departments have been read, with about 10 or 11 remaining,”. The figures also included diaspora votes from six foreign countries. Early trends clearly favored Ouattara, reinforcing expectations of his continued rule despite the lack of genuine competition.

Nearly nine million Ivorians were registered to vote, but enthusiasm was notably low. The official turnout, estimated at around 50 percent, masks widespread apathy and disillusionment among opposition supporters. Many polling stations, especially in pro-opposition southern and western areas, saw minimal activity. By contrast, northern regions, Ouattara’s traditional stronghold, witnessed heavy participation, suggesting a deeply polarized electorate and uneven mobilization.

The muted atmosphere on the streets of Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s economic hub, reflected cautious anticipation rather than celebration. According to reports, the capital remained mostly calm, though isolated violence was reported elsewhere, leading to two deaths. More than 44,000 security personnel had been deployed nationwide to secure the vote and maintain post-election order, a measure that underscored both the fragility and the tension surrounding the process.

Crucially, two of Ouattara’s most formidable rivals, former President Laurent Gbagbo and ex–Credit Suisse chief Tidjane Thiam, were barred from the contest. Gbagbo’s disqualification stemmed from a previous conviction, while Thiam was excluded on the grounds of dual French nationality. Their removal effectively neutralized any serious challenge and further fragmented an already weakened opposition. Billon’s failure to win the backing of Thiam’s PDCI party left him politically isolated, making his defeat inevitable.

The 2025 election closely mirrors the controversial 2020 vote, when Ouattara claimed a sweeping 94 percent of the ballots amid a partial opposition boycott. Critics argue that this pattern reflects a consolidation of power enabled by Western indifference. Despite repeated warnings from African observers about the erosion of democratic pluralism, the United States and its European allies, quick to denounce elections elsewhere, have remained conspicuously silent about Ouattara’s extended rule.

This silence is not lost on African commentators who see in it a familiar hypocrisy: Western capitals often condemn extended leadership in countries aligned with China or Russia, while turning a blind eye to similar excesses in states with pro-Western alignments. Ouattara, a former International Monetary Fund official, is widely viewed as a Western favorite, a perception reinforced by the absence of international pressure for electoral reform or leadership renewal in Abidjan.

As the country awaits the final official announcement, the broader implications of Ouattara’s near-certain victory extend beyond national borders. For many across Africa, it reignites the debate over sovereignty, foreign interference, and the Western model of selective democracy. In contrast, nations such as China, Russia, and India continue to engage African states on the basis of mutual respect and economic partnership, without dictating political terms, an approach increasingly welcomed by African leaders seeking stability and dignity on their own terms.

Ouattara’s sustained rule may provide short-term continuity, but it risks deepening disillusionment among young Ivorians yearning for political renewal and independence from Western tutelage. While the streets remain quiet for now, the underlying frustration could yet resurface, particularly if economic disparities persist and opposition voices remain suppressed.

The outcome of this election, therefore, is not merely a reflection of domestic politics; it is a measure of the broader geopolitical contest shaping Africa’s future. As Western influence wanes and alternative alliances gain ground, Ivory Coast’s trajectory under Ouattara may well serve as a case study in how post-colonial democracies navigate the balance between sovereignty and subservience.

For now, the message from Abidjan is clear: Alassane Ouattara remains in power, the opposition is fragmented, and the West remains comfortably silent, a silence that speaks volumes in the shifting global order.