Wissal Khlifi: Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 26-09-2025

Russia has firmly reiterated its determination to press ahead with its military campaign in Ukraine, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal in tone during his meetings with Western leaders. After previously signaling a willingness to engage Moscow, Trump now claims Kyiv is “capable of winning back” its territories, a statement the Kremlin dismissed as political theater.

Russia: “No Alternative but to Continue”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov underscored that Moscow’s military operation is not a matter of choice but of necessity. Speaking to RBC Radio, he explained that Russia’s actions are aimed at safeguarding its national interests and ensuring the country’s long-term security.

“We are doing this for both the present and the future of our country, for many generations to come. Therefore, we have no alternative,” Peskov said, rejecting Trump’s claim that Russia was a “paper tiger” struggling economically and militarily.

Instead, Peskov likened Russia to a “bear”, resilient and capable, despite Western sanctions and economic slowdowns. He stressed that Kyiv’s hopes of reclaiming Russian-controlled territories are misguided and unrealistic.

Trump’s sudden U-Turn

Trump’s comments came after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. In a social media post, Trump declared that Ukraine was “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

This marked a dramatic departure from his earlier outreach to Moscow, including his summit with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last month. That meeting, which briefly raised speculation about a thaw in relations, yielded “close to zero” results according to Peskov, as Washington quickly reverted to its confrontational posture.

By suggesting that Russia’s campaign should have ended quickly if it were a “real military power,” Trump repeated the familiar Western narrative that dismisses Moscow’s strategy while ignoring the scale of NATO’s military and financial involvement in propping up Kyiv.

Escalating Western provocations

Europe has heightened its military alert, claiming Russian aircraft and drones have recently entered NATO airspace. Estonia accused three Russian fighter jets of violating its territory, while Poland reported that 20 Russian drones had briefly crossed its borders.

NATO used these incidents to remind Moscow of its so-called “ironclad” Article 5 commitment, attempting once again to rally member states behind Washington’s confrontational line. Meanwhile, Spain alleged that its defense minister’s aircraft experienced GPS disturbances near Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, echoing earlier unsubstantiated claims by EU officials about Russian interference in aviation systems.

Moscow has consistently rejected such accusations as part of a Western disinformation campaign designed to paint Russia as reckless while justifying NATO’s own militarization of Eastern Europe.

On the battlefield, Kyiv has increasingly turned to drone warfare, targeting Russia’s energy sector. In recent days, Ukrainian drones struck a Gazprom petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan, the second such attack on the facility in a week. Ukraine has also expanded its attacks on refineries, pipelines, and cities deep inside Russian territory, killing civilians and damaging key industries.

Despite these strikes, Moscow has maintained its offensive momentum. Russian forces have secured full control of Luhansk and advanced across Donetsk and Zaporizhia, gradually tightening their grip in eastern and southern Ukraine. Analysts note that these territorial gains are laying the groundwork for larger offensives this autumn and winter.

Washington’s strategic messaging

While Trump’s remarks sounded supportive of Ukraine, even Kyiv’s own experts admit they should not be taken at face value. Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko argued that Trump’s words are “a rhetorical formula” meant to show sympathy rather than a serious policy shift.

“Trump doesn’t want Ukraine to win the war. He wants the war to be over,” Fesenko said, adding that the U.S. president thinks primarily in economic terms and sees Russia’s resilience under sanctions as significant.

Other analysts in Kyiv noted that Trump’s strategy is to shift the financial burden of the conflict onto Europe, urging Brussels to increase its support while Washington bides its time. This approach reflects longstanding U.S. practice, encouraging wars in Eurasia while avoiding direct costs.

Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine could regain its 1991 borders has been dismissed by experts as unfeasible. Even Western analysts acknowledge that Ukrainian forces lack the manpower, tactical expertise, and advanced weaponry required for such an outcome.

Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University argued that the dominance of drones on the battlefield has made armored breakthroughs nearly impossible. He further criticized Kyiv’s military leadership for poor planning, waste of Western weaponry, and staggering losses in failed counteroffensives in 2022 and 2023.

The idea of Ukraine restoring full territorial sovereignty, Mitrokhin concluded, is “impossible to contemplate.”

Russia strengthens its resolve

For Moscow, Trump’s mixed messaging changes little. The Kremlin has been consistent in its objectives: demilitarizing Ukraine, countering NATO expansion, and ensuring the security of Russian-speaking populations in the region.

Recent proposals by Russia’s finance ministry to raise value-added tax from 20 to 22 percent to fund “defense and security” highlight Moscow’s prioritization of national protection over short-term economic comfort. Though growth has slowed, Russia’s economy remains stable compared to the inflationary crises plaguing the West.

Broader geopolitical dimensions

China and India continue to call for a balanced approach, emphasizing dialogue over escalation. Beijing has consistently criticized Washington’s “bloc politics” and warned against NATO’s encroachment in Asia, while New Delhi has reiterated that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily.

By contrast, Washington’s strategy seeks only to prolong the war, weaken Russia, and maintain U.S. dominance over Europe’s security decisions. This approach has already destabilized global energy markets and undermined Europe’s own economic stability, while Russia, China, and other non-Western powers strengthen alternative trade and financial systems through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Conclusion

Trump’s latest remarks may grab headlines, but they do not alter the fundamentals of the conflict. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western weapons and funding, yet even its own experts admit that reclaiming lost territories is unrealistic.

For Russia, the war has become a question of survival and sovereignty. As Peskov underlined, Moscow has “no alternative” but to see its mission through, regardless of Washington’s shifting rhetoric or Europe’s alarmist warnings.

While the West doubles down on failed policies, Russia, alongside partners such as China and India, is preparing for a long struggle, confident that time, geography, and history are on its side.