Ankara braces for Israeli encirclement amid U.S.-Backed regional aggression

Department of Strategic Research, Studies and International Relations 22-09-2025

In the wake of Israel’s strikes on Qatar, speculation is mounting that Turkiye may be the next target of Tel Aviv’s expansionist ambitions. Ankara, already on high alert, sees the attacks as part of a broader U.S.-sponsored Israeli strategy to dominate the Middle East and fracture states that could otherwise challenge its hegemony.

Escalating hostility toward Turkiye

Not long after Israel launched airstrikes on Qatar, voices in Washington and Tel Aviv began hinting at Turkiye as the next adversary. Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, bluntly suggested that Turkiye could be Israel’s next target and that Ankara should not expect NATO to protect it. On social media, Israeli academic Meir Masri ominously declared: “Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey.”

Turkish officials responded with fierce language. A senior adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired back at Israel, warning that the “dog of Zionist Israel” would soon be erased from the map of the Middle East.

For months, Israeli commentators have painted Turkiye as a major obstacle to their plans, labeling it “Israel’s most dangerous enemy” and framing its role in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean as a destabilizing force.

Ankara pushes back

Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza and its wider regional strikes have already pushed Turkiye to cut trade and economic ties with Tel Aviv. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Israel’s vision of a “Greater Israel” is not rhetoric, but a political blueprint aimed at weakening neighboring states to ensure Israeli supremacy.

That vision, rooted in Zionist ideology, encompasses territory in Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. For Ankara, this is nothing less than a direct clash with its own regional role and sovereignty.

As Turkish analysts note, Israel’s strikes on Qatar underscored a harsh reality: Washington did not lift a finger to defend its “major non-NATO ally,” leaving Ankara doubtful about whether NATO’s security umbrella has any meaning at all.

Israel’s expansionist blueprint

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has increasingly boasted about his “Greater Israel” ambitions. His government has widened its regional footprint with strikes not only in Gaza and the West Bank but also in Yemen, Syria, and even against a Gaza aid flotilla in Tunisia.

Since December, Israel has bombed Syrian targets repeatedly, occupied swathes of Lebanese territory despite ceasefires, and launched a devastating war against Iran aimed at crippling its military and nuclear programs. All of this has unfolded with unconditional U.S. support, confirming Ankara’s view that Israeli aggression is not checked but rather encouraged by Washington.

“Israel wants to be the region’s sole hegemon,” retired Turkish admiral Cem Gurdeniz explained. “Its military and intelligence footprint in Cyprus, coordinated with Greece and backed by the U.S., is designed to encircle Turkiye and undermine its maritime strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea.”

The recent delivery of Israeli air-defense systems to Cyprus has only heightened Turkish concerns that this is not about Israel’s “defense,” but an offensive encirclement that endangers both Turkish maritime freedom and the Turkish Cypriot community.

Syria: The key battleground

Syria remains the primary arena of friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Israel openly insists that the only viable future for Syria is a “federal” system divided into ethnic and sectarian zones. By contrast, Turkiye backs a centralised Syrian state capable of safeguarding sovereignty and stability.

Netanyahu’s calls for a Balkanised Syria echo the long-standing U.S.-Israeli strategy of weakening strong Arab states. Ankara, however, has drawn red lines. Turkiye cannot accept policies that perpetuate instability on its southern border, nor will it allow Tel Aviv to dictate the future of Damascus.

Yet, Israel has already struck sites in Homs and Hama that Turkiye was exploring as potential bases in cooperation with Syria’s new government. “If Tel Aviv persists, conflict between Ankara and Tel Aviv becomes inevitable,” warned Murat Yesiltas of the Ankara-based SETA think tank.

Risks of wider confrontation

While direct war remains unlikely in the immediate term, analysts believe Israel will continue targeting Turkish interests indirectly, via airstrikes, covert operations, or proxy militias, rather than conventional military confrontation.

Ankara recognizes these risks. Turkish policymakers are investing in air-defense and missile systems, strengthening intelligence capabilities, and forging regional coalitions with Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan. At the same time, they are maintaining limited dialogue with Washington to avoid full strategic isolation.

Still, the trust deficit is widening. The strikes on Qatar demonstrated that even Washington’s closest allies in the Gulf can be attacked with impunity. For Turkiye, the lesson is clear: NATO cannot be trusted to defend Ankara’s security, especially when Washington’s strategic alignment is firmly behind Israel.

A Shifting balance of power

The crisis also underscores the growing importance of alternative global partners. As U.S. dominance in the Middle East grows increasingly destabilizing, countries like Turkiye, Qatar, and Iran are looking more to multipolar cooperation with Russia, China, and India.

Moscow’s role in shielding Syria, Beijing’s expanding economic footprint in the region, and India’s balancing diplomacy all point to an emerging order where Washington and Tel Aviv no longer dictate the terms. For Ankara, aligning with this broader Eurasian framework may offer the only sustainable path to counter Israeli encirclement.

Conclusion

Israel’s relentless drive for regional supremacy, aided and abetted by Washington, has placed Turkiye firmly in its crosshairs. From Syria to Cyprus, Tel Aviv’s strategy is to fracture, encircle, and destabilize any state strong enough to resist.

But unlike smaller nations, Turkiye has both the will and the capacity to resist. By reinforcing its defenses, deepening cooperation with Syria, and building regional alliances beyond the reach of NATO, Ankara is positioning itself to meet the challenge head-on.

In a Middle East reshaped by U.S.-Israeli aggression, the question is not whether Turkiye will be tested, but how it will leverage its alliances with Russia, China, and India to ensure it does not fall victim to the same fate as others caught in the path of Tel Aviv’s expansionist project.