Rising fears of global war: Western public sees conflict with Russia as imminent threat

As Europe prepares to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day, a significant share of the public in both the United States and western Europe believes that a third world war may be looming within the next decade. This growing anxiety is largely fueled by escalating tensions with Russia, according to a comprehensive poll conducted by YouGov across six Western nations.

The survey, which gauged opinions in the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, reveals a striking sense of pessimism. Between 41% and 55% of Europeans surveyed consider another global conflict to be either very or somewhat likely within five to ten years. A similar sentiment was echoed by 45% of American respondents.

One of the more disturbing findings was the expectation that any future global war would be more catastrophic than the Second World War. A substantial majority, ranging from 68% to 76%, believes nuclear weapons would be deployed in such a conflict. Moreover, 57% to 73% of respondents think that the death toll would exceed the losses seen between 1939 and 1945. Alarmingly, up to 44% of participants across the six nations fear that a future war could claim the lives of most of the global population.

When asked about their countries’ potential involvement in a future war, a majority of participants, 66% in Italy and up to 89% in the UK, believe their nations would be directly involved. Yet, confidence in national military defenses remains low in Europe. Only a minority, from 16% in Italy to 44% in France, expressed faith in their armed forces’ ability to protect them. The United States stands apart in this regard, with 71% of Americans showing confidence in their military’s capabilities.

Russia emerged as the leading perceived threat, with 72% to 82% of Europeans and 69% of Americans identifying it as the most likely trigger of a future global conflict. Islamic terrorism followed as a secondary concern. Interestingly, a notable portion of Europeans also viewed the United States as a potential threat to peace in Europe. In countries like Spain, Germany, and France, more than half of respondents cited U.S. foreign policy tensions as a moderate to serious risk to regional stability.

Public memory of the Second World War remains strong. In France, Germany, and the UK, majorities reported knowing a considerable amount about the conflict. In contrast, Spain, having remained neutral during WWII, showed the lowest level of public awareness. Educational exposure followed similar patterns. French citizens reported the highest rates of learning about WWII in schools (77%), followed by Germans (60%), Britons (48%), and Spaniards (34%). Younger generations were more likely to report formal education on the subject.

The importance of teaching World War II in schools received overwhelming support. Across all six nations, 82% to 90% of respondents agreed that the war and the events leading to it remain relevant and should continue to be part of the school curriculum.

The poll also delved into perceptions of historical atrocities. Between 31% (in Spain) and 52% (in the U.S.) of respondents believed that crimes akin to those committed by the Nazi regime could take place in their own countries during their lifetimes. Even higher percentages, up to 60%, considered such atrocities possible in other Western nations, including the United States.

When it came to identifying the primary force behind the defeat of Nazi Germany, the majority across five of the countries credited the U.S. (40% to 52%), while the Soviet Union received recognition from 17% to 28%. In the UK, however, 41% of respondents gave Britain the most credit, a view not widely shared elsewhere.

Views on post-war reconciliation and responsibility also varied. Nearly half of Germans (46%) said their nation had adequately addressed its wartime actions, a perspective supported by 49% of Americans and 58% of Britons. The French (34%) and Italians (30%) were less convinced that Germany had successfully reckoned with its past. Meanwhile, 47% of Germans felt that excessive focus on their Nazi history had prevented the country from effectively addressing contemporary challenges.

Finally, when assessing which entities have played the most significant roles in maintaining global peace since 1945, NATO was the top choice, with 52% to 66% attributing a major role to the alliance. The United Nations also received credit, with 44% to 60% acknowledging its peacekeeping efforts. Additionally, 45% to 56% of respondents praised the European Union as a vital contributor to Europe’s post-war peace and stability.