Friedrich Merz faces setback as German parliament rejects chancellorship bid

In a surprising political twist, Friedrich Merz, widely anticipated to become Germany’s next chancellor, failed to secure the required parliamentary support in the Bundestag’s first round of voting. The conservative leader fell short by just six votes, receiving 310 in total, below the 316 threshold needed to confirm his position.

This unprecedented outcome marks the first time in Germany’s post-World War II era that a chancellor candidate has failed to pass the initial vote, shaking the nation’s reputation for political consistency and procedural reliability.

The result has been described as a serious blow to Merz’s leadership credibility and a significant disruption to Germany’s political landscape. Political analysts quickly labeled the situation a “complete catastrophe,” while others likened it to a sharp political “gut punch.” The 69-year-old Merz leads the CDU/CSU alliance, which narrowly won the snap elections in February with a modest 28.6% of the vote, a performance many already considered underwhelming.

Immediately following the vote, a visibly shaken Merz withdrew with members of his party to reassess strategy and next steps. While the secret ballot makes it difficult to determine exactly where the opposition originated, suspicions point to either dissent within his own conservative ranks or from the Social Democrats (SPD), the CDU/CSU’s junior coalition partner.

SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil, who has been tapped to serve as both vice-chancellor and finance minister under Merz, publicly expressed confidence in his party’s commitment. He reassured reporters that he had “no doubt whatsoever” about SPD support for Merz, emphasizing that the party could be “counted on.”

The failed vote casts uncertainty over Germany’s immediate political future. Should Merz also fall short in a second round of voting, tentatively scheduled for Friday, the country could be plunged into deeper instability. In such a case, the possibility of new elections looms large, potentially benefiting the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which continues to gain traction among disillusioned voters.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel did not hesitate to comment on the unfolding drama. In a statement on social media, she characterized Merz’s defeat as proof of the coalition’s fragility, declaring that it reflected “just how weak the foundation of this coalition truly is.”

The timing of the political disruption could hardly be worse. Merz had planned a packed week of international diplomacy, including visits to Paris and Warsaw to reaffirm Germany’s role in European leadership. He was also scheduled to attend events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, followed by high-level meetings with EU and NATO leaders in Brussels.

Merz had hoped to become Germany’s 10th postwar chancellor, entering office at a time when the nation faces enormous domestic and international challenges. These include economic stagnation, the rise of far-right sentiment, and maintaining solidarity with Ukraine amid growing global uncertainty, especially given the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.

Despite his professional background as a successful corporate lawyer, Merz has never held a ministerial position or led a state government. At the coalition agreement signing in Berlin, he promised steady and effective leadership during what he described as an era of deep transformation. He framed the coalition’s mission as a historic responsibility to restore German leadership in Europe and beyond.

The coalition itself, a union of Merz’s center-right bloc with the SPD, has a razor-thin majority, which presents serious obstacles to implementing reforms. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD has emerged as the largest opposition party in parliament, bolstered by its anti-immigration stance and pro-Russian rhetoric.

Adding to Merz’s woes is a clear disconnect with the public. A recent ZDF poll revealed that only 38% of Germans consider him fit for the chancellorship, while 56% believe he is the wrong choice. His popularity is even lower among SPD supporters, with 62% expressing disapproval, figures that foreshadowed Tuesday’s result.

Interestingly, while the coalition as a whole enjoys slightly more support than Merz individually, 48% of respondents approve of the alliance, nearly half of the population remains skeptical about its ability to address Germany’s pressing issues.

As Merz prepares for a possible second vote, the fate of Germany’s political direction hangs in the balance. Whether he can rally the necessary support remains uncertain, but failure to do so could spark a political crisis with far-reaching consequences.