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محلل سياسي:”حكومة السراج في مأزق وطموحات تركيا ستسقط “

طرابلس-ليبيا-19-12-2019 زهور المشرقي


تعيش العاصمة الليبية طرابلس في حالة حرب منذ أسبوعين حين أعلنت القيادة العامة للجيش الليبي “ساعة الصفر” لتحرير العاصمة من الإرهابيين والمليشيات المسلحة التي تسيطر عليها تحت غطاء حكومة “السراج” المدعومة من ثنائي الشر “تركيا وقطر”.
وفي السنوات الأخيرة عاشت ليبيا نسختها الخاصة من المسلسل التليفزيوني “لعبة العروش”، في حالة مستمرة من الصراعات القوية على السلطة، التي تشمل ميليشيات متناحرة، وحكومات متنافسة، ولاعبين دوليين يتزايدون.
وفي العاصمة طرابلس هذه الأيام يمكنك أن تسمع بشكل متقطع أصوات المعارك تتخلل حركة المرور، بيد أن الشوارع ظلت مكتظة بالناس. فهذه مدينة يغذيها النفط.. وبدأت آخر جولات القتال في أبريل الماضي ، عندما قاد المشير خليفة حفتر الجيش الوطني الليبي من معاقلها في شرق ليبيا نحو طرابلس في غرب البلاد.
وقالت مصادر عسكرية لصحيفة (ستراتيجيا نيوز) إن الجيش سيتصدى لأي محاولة تركية لإرسال جنود أتراك لدعم الإرهاب في طرابلس، أو لإرباك عمل المؤسسة العسكرية تحت غطاء الإتفاق الأمني المشبوه الذي وقعه أردوغان مع رئيس حكومة الوفاق فايز السراج.
ويرى مراقبون أن الصراع في ليبيا دخل في مرحلته الأخيرة بعد قطع شوط كبير من قبل الجيش الذي حرر جزءً مهما من الأراضي التي كانت تحت عبث الميليشيات الإرهابية المسلحة .

في ذات السياق ، قال الدكتور طه علي، الباحث والمحلل السياسي المتخصص في شؤون الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا، في حديث مع صحيفة (ستراتيجيا نيوز) اليوم الخميس19ديسمبر2019، إن الصراع في ليبيا يقع بين طرفين أحدهما يمثل قوى نظامية تؤمن بمنطق الدولة الوطنية، وفريق يعتمد على الميليشيات التي تعمل لخدمة أجندات إقليمية وتقع في الوقت ذاته في القلب من مشروع تطرف إقليمي تدعمه تركيا وقطر، مضيفا أن هذا الوضع بين قوى نظامية وأخرى لا ترتبط بالأساس إلا بغطاء تفاهمات”الصخيرات” والتي فقدت شرعيتها حاليا، بعيدا عن التأييد الداخلي الذي يقود إلى نتيجة مفادها استحالة أن تبقي الميليشيات في وضع يهدد مستقبل الدولة الليبية.
واعتبر الدكتور طه، أن هذه الميليشيات تتناقض مع منطق الحفاظ على الدولة الإقليمية، الأمر الذي يفسّر حرص العديد من القوى الإقليمية على دعم قوات الجيش الوطني الليبي في مواجهة الميليشيات للحيلولة دون تمدد النفوذ التركي في المنطقة.
وأفاد محدثنا بأن واقع سيطرة الجيش الليبي على ما لا يقل عن 85% من الأراضي الليبية يجعل موقف حكومة السراج في مأزق حيث لم تعد تقوى على الحفاظ على مساحة الأرض التي تسيطر عليها بل هي في تضاءل مستمر نتيجة توالي الضربات التي توجهها قوات الجيش الوطني ما يخلص بنا إلى تهاوي حكومة السراج التي لا تجد لها سبيلا سوى استجداء الدعم التركي والقطري للحفاظ على بقائها، حسب تعبيره.
وأضاف أن “المجتمع الدولي يرى أن الصراع في ليبيا بات مرتبطا بخريطة إقليمية لا تنفصل عن ديناميات الصراع حول غاز المتوسط وطموحات تركيا في هذه المنطقة، الأمر الذي يتعارض مع المصالح الأمريكية ، وبخاصة بعد أن منحت حكومة قبرص أخيرا ترخيصا للتنقيب لتحالف يضم شركتين أمريكيتين وثالثة إسرائيلية للتنقيب عن الغاز في المنطقة الإقتصادية الخاصة بقبرص اليونانية، ما يعني أن ثمة تعارضا في المصالح الأمريكية مع الطموحات التركية في المنطقة، وعليه فإن تنفيذ المشروع التركي في الصراع الليبي يعني فرض هيمنة أنقرة على شرق المتوسط كله بما ينطوي ذلك على صدام مع أطراف إقليمية أخرى مثل مصر وقبرص واليونان، و”إسرائيل”.
على غرار وأكد الباحث والمحلل السياسي المتخصص في شؤون الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا ، أن من غير الواقعي أن تصمد حكومة السراج برغم استجداء الدعم التركي والقطري، كما أن اعتراض اليونان سفينة تركية كانت محمّلة بالأسلحة متجهة لدعم ميليشيات السراج،فضلا عن الحظر الجوي الذي يفرضه الجيش الوطني ومواقف عدد من الدول الإقليمية، كل ذلك يقودنا إلى توقع عدم قدرة حكومة السراج على الصمود في المستقبل المنظور، في ظل وعي الليبيين بعدم السماح بنهب ثروات بلادهم من قبل تركيا، كما أن من غير المتوقع أن يقبل الليبيون أيضا بوقوع جهاز الأمن الوطني لديهم في قبضة الأتراك بموجب مذكرة التفاهم التي وقعها السراج مع أردوغان مؤخرا، وهي المذكرة التي تمنح الأتراك “الحق”في الاطلاع على كافة تفاصيل بيانات السجلات الأمنية لحكومة الوفاق”.
ميدانيا يحرز الجيش الليبي تقدما مستمرا في مناطق طرابلس التي تسيطر عليها ميليشيات تعمل تحت إمرة السراج.
وأوضح مدير إدارة التوجيه المعنوي في الجيش الوطني الليبي، العميد خالد المحجوب، أن القوات تتقدم في طريق المطار جنوبي طرابلس، وتتحرك لإحكام الطوق على مناطق جديدة.
وأشار المحجوب إلى أن دفاعات الميليشيات في طرابلس بدأت تتقهقر، لافتا إلى أن قوات الجيش الوطني أصبحت متحاذية في مناطق عدة بطرابلس، لإحكام السيطرة عليها، والقضاء على تحركات الميليشيات.
من جانبه،أكد القيادي في غرفة عمليات المنطقة الوسطى فرج الورفلي، أن تقدمات القوات المسلحة إلى النقاط المحددة لها وفقا للخطة الموضوعة جاءت في وقت قياسي وسريع ما وضع عناصر الإرهابيين الأجانب في “اختبار صعب”.
وأضاف،في تصريحات خاصة لموقع (العين) أن التزام القوات بما هو مخطط لها سلفا دلالة واضحة على حرفية الوحدات المسلحة التي تواجه أشرس التنظيمات الإرهابية في ظل القرارات الجائرة بحظر توريد السلاح المفروض على الجيش.
وأضاف الورفلي أن العناصر الارهابية المدربة في سوريا والقادمة من تركيا عن طريق مطار مصراتة وضعت في اختبار صعب في مواجهة مفرزة القوات الخاصة الليبية المدربة على المعارك الليلية والمناورة خلف خطوط العدو.

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