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سرت تُغيّر المعادلة

 القاهرة – مصر – 09-01-2020

نشرت صحيفة(البوابة نيوز) المصرية، مقالا للكاتب علي الفاتح، حول تحرير مدينة سرت، الليبية،جاء فيه: حملت أخبار تحرير مدينة سرت الليبية من سطوة عصابات الإرهاب، مفاجأة قوية للجميع، لم تختلف دلالاتها بالنسبة لأي طرف، وإن اختلف وقعها بين الفرح والسرور للوطنيين الشرفاء المؤيدين لعودة الدولة، والحزن والإحباط واليأس للخونة الذين استعانوا بالعدو التركي على أوطانهم.

فقد تأكد لكل الأطراف الدولية والإقليمية أن الجيش الوطني الليبي بقيادة المشير خليفة حفتر هو الطرف الأقوى من الناحية العسكرية، وأنه قادر على استكمال مسيرة تحرير باقي المدن من سطوة عصابات الإرهاب بعد أن بسط سيطرته فعليًا على أكثر من 90% من إجمالي مساحة البلاد البالغة مليون وسبعمائة ألف كيلومتر مربع، أي ضعف مساحة مصر تقريبًا.

فمدينة سرت كانت قد تحولت عبر السنوات التسع الماضية منذ اندلاع أحداث 17 فبراير 2011،إلى معقل حقيقى لأعتى الجماعات الإرهابية والميليشيات المسلحة المرتبطة عضويًا بما يسمى بميليشيات مدينة مصراتة، وقد أهلها ذلك إضافة إلى مينائها الكبير على ساحل البحر المتوسط وقاعدة القرضابية العسكرية،لأن تكون جزءً رئيسًا في خطة الرئيس التركي لتطويق الجيش الوطنى الليبي.

فكان من المفترض أن يستقبل كل من ميناء سرت وقاعدة القرضابية عناصر الجيش التركي والمرتزقة السوريين ليبدأوا بشن هجوم واسع يستهدف السيطرة على منطقة الهلال النفطي الواقع إلى شرق المدينة بتأمين من ميليشيات مصراتة التي ستساعدهم في محاولة تطويق الجيش الوطني إلى الغرب من مصراتة في طرابلس وفي شرق سرت، لذلك جاء خبر تحرير سرت المدينة التي تبعد 450 كيلومترا شرق طرابلس وتتوسط الساحل الليبي بمثابة صفعة لكل مخططات أردوغان وهذا ما أكده لىي أستاذ العلاقات الدولية في الجامعات الليبية دكتور محمد الزبيدي الذي أوضح أن تحرير سرت غَيَرَ الكثير في المعادلة الليبية التي لن يكون الإعتراف فيها إلا للطرف الأقوى وه؛ ما دفع- بحسبه- بعض الأطراف الدولية التي ما تزال تراهن على ما تُسمى بحكومة الصخيرات بقيادة فايز السراج إلى اقتراح حزمة من الإجراءات لتخفيف التصعيد في ليبيا، من بينها إرسال قوة حفظ سلام دولية مهمتها مراقبة تطبيق قرار مجلس الأمن بخصوص حظر تصدير السلاح إلى ليبيا وكذلك منع حدوث تدخلات أجنبية خارجية عبر عناصر وقوات مسلحة.

الدكتور الزبيدي يرى أن صاحب هذا الإقتراح إنما يريد الحفاظ على استمرار تواجد الميليشيات الإرهابية في كنتونات وتجمعات داخل مدن مثل مصراتة وتكون قوات حفظ السلام بمثابة العازل الذي يحمى تلك الميليشيات من الجيش الوطني الليبي وهو، ما يعنى استمرار الأزمة الليبية إلى ما لا نهاية.

ويضيف الزبيدي أن بيان جامعة الدول العربية الصادر عن اجتماعها الطارئ الأسبوع الماضي هو ما أعطى قبلة الحياة لحكومة السراج واتفاق الصخيرات، بإعلانه التمسك به كمرجعية وحيدة للتسوية السياسية بينما الإتفاق سقط من الناحية القانونية بحسب بنوده في 2017؛ حيث نصت على أن يمتد الإتفاق لمدة عام إلى 2016 على أن يُجدد لمدة عام واحد فقط.

تحرير سرت حمل دلالات مهمة لكل من إيطاليا وتونس والجزائر؛ فالآن قد يكتمل اقتناع روما بأن مصالحها في نهاية المطاف لن تكون إلا مع الطرف القوي الذي سيحرر العاصمة طرابلس من فلول الإرهاب ويجلس على المائدة الليبية ليصنع تسوية سياسية محلية، وأن مصالحها التى بنتها مع حكومة السراج وعصاباتها المسلحة باتت مهددة..

 فبحسب الدكتور الزبيدى أقامت إيطاليا علاقات مشبوهة مع عصابات مسلحة وجماعات إرهابية لتحقيق بعض مصالحها منها؛ على سبيل المثال الحصول على الغاز الليبي والبترول الليبي مُكررًا مجانًا، وتوكيل تلك العصابات المُسماة علنًا بخفر السواحل للقيام بأعمال قذرة ضد المهاجرين غير الشرعيين أقلها إغراق قواربهم في عرض البحر المتوسط.

ولولا جهود الدبلوماسية المصرية مع الطرف الإيطالي، والحديث لا يزال للدكتور الزبيدي، لأقامت روما قواعد عسكرية صريحة في مدن الغرب الليبي على غرار قاعدتها في مصراتة. لكن تحرير سرت سيكون له الكلمة الفصل التي تدفع إيطاليا للتخلي تمامًا عن حليفتها حكومة الوفاق…

الأمر ذاته كان بالنسبة لتونس التي أعلنت في بيان رسمي صباح الثلاثاء، وهو اليوم التالي لتحرير سرت، رفضها استخدام أراضيها لإبرار جنود وآليات عسكرية تركية، ولم يختلف الحال كثيرًا في الجزائر التي تُدرك جيدًا أنها في نهاية المطاف تحتاج إلى حكومة ليبية قوية قادرة على هزيمة وملاحقة فلول الجماعات الإرهابية، والإشتراك معها في تأمين حدودها التي تبلغ أكثر من ألف كيلومتر.

انتصار الجيش الليبي في سرت كان له انعكاسه اللحظي والمباشر على مسار اجتماع مجلس الأمن الذي انعقد بناء على طلب ما تُسمى بحكومة الوفاق غير الشرعية حيث، طلب وزير خارجيتها محمد طاهر سيالة عقد جلسة بمجلس الأمن لمناقشة ما يقول إنه جريمة حرب ارتكبها الجيش الوطني بقصفه الكلية العسكرية مما أسفر عن مقتل نحو 30 طالبا وجرح آخرين.

الإجتماع تجاهل الحديث عن تلك الجريمة التي ارتكبتها عصابات السراج بهدف تشويه سمعة الجيش الوطني الليبي ومحاولة يائسة لإيجاد مبرر أخلاقي لاستدعاء العدو التركي ومرتزقته السوريين؛ فقد أذهلت جماهير مدينة سرت العالم بخروجها الحاشد إلى شوارع المدينة للإلتحام مع قوات الجيش الوطني والإحتفال بتحريرها ما يعني أن المدن الليبية الواقعة تحت سيطرة السراج مُختطفة من قبل عصاباته وميليشياته المسلحة.

صحيح أن المجتمعين في مجلس الأمن قد اختلفوا على توجيه إدانة صريحة للتدخلات التركية وقيام راعي الإرهاب الدولي أردوغان بإرسال مرتزقة سوريين،إلا أنه تم التوافق في نهاية الأمر على إصدار بيان صحفي يتضمن الحث على وقف التصعيد العسكري، احترام قرارات مجلس الأمن الخاصة بحظر التسليح على ليبيا، دعم جهود مبعوث الأمم المتحدة غسان سلامة.

وبحسب مراقبين جاءت هذه الصيغة للحفاظ على الحد الأدنى من التوافق بين القوى الكبرى تفاديًا لوقوع خلافات قد تؤثر سلبًا على مؤتمر برلين المُزمع عقده خلال الشهر الجاري.

يبقى القول في التحليل النهائي إن تحرير مدينة سرت بعملية عسكرية نوعية من هذا الطراز الرفيع والمتقدم قد أطاح نهائيًا بأحلام أردوغان في تدشين قواعد عسكرية تركية داخل الأراضي الليبية وهو ما أقره بشكل غير مباشر وزير خارجيته مولود شاويش أوغلو، ليس ذلك فقط بل إن تحرير سرت قد وأد أطماعه في خلق بؤر إرهابية تشكلها عناصر المرتزقة السوريين من العرق التركمانى وهو ما يعنى بعبارة أخرى إزاحة شبح حرب إقليمية كانت ستشتعل حتمًا إذا نقلت تركيا قواتها هناك أي أن الصراع سيظل عند مستوى عملية طوفان الكرامة للجيش الوطني الليبي لتحرير أراضي بلاده من فلول جماعات الإرهاب والعصابات الإجرامية.

ومع كتابة هذه السطور تتقدم قوات الجيش الليبى لتطويق مدينة مصراتة فيما تحرز كتائبه تقدمات غير مسبوقة داخل طرابلس ما يعني من الناحية العملية قطع طريق الإمدادات عن عصابات السراج المتواجدة في العاصمة وهو ما يُنبئ بانتصارات عسكرية ستفرض واقعًا سياسيًا مُغايرًا لما فرضه اتفاق الصخيرات، وقد أكدت لي عدة مصادر سياسية ودبلوماسية مصرية وليبية أن مؤتمر برلين سيشهد الإعلان عن تشكيل حكومة جديدة، ونزع الإعتراف بشرعية حكومة السراج.

فقد أضحى الجميع يدرك استحالة أن يظل السراج بعد كل ما ارتكبه من جرائم ضد الشعب الليبي، فاعلًا في صياغة مستقبل ليبيا، علاوة على أن الجارة الشرقية مصر كما لم تسمح بأي تواجد عسكري تركي أو تمدد نفوذ الجماعات الإرهابية داخل صحراء ليبيا، لن تسمح أيضًا بأن يلعب قادة وممثلو جماعة الإخوان الإرهابية وشقيقاتها أي دور في صياغة مستقبل ليبيا خاصة في ظل تبعيتها لتركيا التي تسعى إلى تطويق الدولة المصرية عبر عدة محاور إستراتيجية تارة بتواجد عسكري مُباشر وتارة أخرى عبر بؤر لتنظيمات إرهابية.

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