أخبار العالمأنشطة المركزبحوث ودراسات

الرئيس حسم الأمر.. واستجاب للشعب “سيناريوهات و تحديات العملية السياسية في تونس خلال المرحلة المقبلة”

تونس 10-08-2021

نظّم المركز الدولي للدراسات الإستراتيجية العسكرية والامنية في تونس بالتشارك مع مركز المستقبل للأبحاث والدراسات المتقدّمة بأبوظبي، حلقة للنقاش بعنوان “سيناريوهات و تحديات العملية السياسية في تونس خلال المرحلة المقبلة”، وأثّث الحلقة مجموعة من خبراء المركز الدولي للدراسات الإستراتيجية والامنية والعسكرية بتونس لمحاولة تقديم رؤية شاملة وعميقة حول للمشهد السياسي الحالي وتواتر الأحداث بعد قرارات 25 جويلية الرئاسية.

كلمة الدكتورة بدرة قعلول

ذكرت الدكتورة بدرة قعلول رئيسة المركز، أنّ مطلب اسقاط منظومة الإسلام السياسي ومحاسبتها كانت من أهم مطالب الحراك الشعبي وأنّ رئيس الجمهورية قيس السعيد لم يقم بانقلاب بل حسم الأمر واستجاب لمطالب الشعب التونسي الذي انتخبه بنسبة 72 بالمائة.

وأضافت الدكتورة بدرة قعلول أنّ حركة النهضة “اخوان تونس” قامت بالتحيّل على التونسيين والركوب على الثورة والتعامل مع الدولة بمنطق الغنيمة بعدما نصبت نفسها البطل المنقذ من ديكتاتورية النظام السابق. كما لعبت على مشاعر الشعب الدينية وقدّمت نفسها في صورة المنقذة والمصلحة وقّدمت وعودا كاذبة لم ينّفذ منها شيء.

وشدّدت الدكتورة، على أنّه وبعد عشر سنوات من التدمير الممنهج للدولة، قد اكتشف التونسيون زيف هذه الشعارات وأصبحوا يحلمون بسقوط المنظومة، وحراك 25 جويلية ما هو إلا تعبيرا عن السخط والغضب الشعبي ورغبته في اسقاط هذه المنظومة.

كما ذكرت الدكتورة بدرة قعلول أنّ شعبية حركة النهضة في تقلّص مستمّر إذ أنّها مرّة من مليون وسبعمائة ناخب سنة 2011 الى خمس مائة ألف سنة 2019 ، وحتى إن تمكنت النهضة من التموقع في الساحة السياسية طيلة هذه العشرية السوداء من تاريخ تونس، فذلك يعود أولا لصياغتهم دستورا على المقاس مكّنهم من التحكّم في التعيينات وتركيبات الحكومات المتعاقبة، ما سهّل من تمكّنها من مفاصل الدولة إضافة لاستعمالهم أسلوب الهرسلة وقمع المعارضين وتشويه الخصوم.

وأشارت الدكتورة قعلول إلى قيام الاخوان بتفكيك عديد الأحزاب كحزب نداء تونس، الذي خلق نوعا من التوازن السياسي في فترة معينة، اضافة لتحالفهم مع بارونات الفساد وشراء ذمم العديد من الشخصيات السياسية بالمال الفاسد المتدفق من الخارج والسيطرة على المجالس البلدية عن طريق العديد من القائمات المستقلة.

كما أكّدت الدكتورة قعلول أنّ أهم المطالب للحراك الشعبي هو تصحيح مسار الثورة وذلك من خلال محاسبة الاخوان لما ارتكبوه من جرائم إرهابية، وعلى رأسها قضية الاغتيالات السياسية والجهاز السري، اضافة لتهم الفساد المالي وسوء إدارتهم  للبلاد وللبرلمان.

واختتمت الدكتورة قعلول بأنّ الشعب التونسي اختار استرجاع الجمهورية في عيد الجمهورية، وأنّ حراك 25 جويلية 2021هو حراك عفوي لم يحمل أي شعار ولم يكن من تنظيم الأحزاب السياسية التي كانت في الأصل ضد هذا الحراك الشعبي لأنه في الفترة الأخيرة أصبحت هناك قطيعة كبيرة بين الشعب والأحزاب السياسية التي تخدم مصالحها الحزبية والشخصية الضيّقة، وهو استجابة من رئيس الجمهورية لمطالب الشعب التونسي الذي خرج للاحتفال بقرارات الرئيس، مشدّدة على أن ما حصل ليلة عيد الجمهورية ليس بانقلاب كما يُروّجّ له انما هو تصحيح مسار.

من جانبه، تحدّث العضو بالمركز الدولي للدراسات الإستراتجية الأمنية والعسكرية والعميد السابق بسلك الحرس الوطني السيد حاتم مصباح، عن العشرية الأخيرة التي عاشتها تونس حيث استفحل فيها الفساد، خاصّة في الطبقة السياسية.

كلمة العميد حاتم مصباح:

وأشار السيد حاتم إلى أنّ تردي الوضع على جميع الأصعدة وخاصّة مع تتالي الحكومات وتعاقبها في العشرية الاخيرة مما أدّى إلى انهيار كامل في المنظومة، وجعل من تونس أنقاضا تتخبّط في ظلّ الاخطبوط السياسي الذي لم يستهدف  تونس فقط لكن على المستوى الإقليمي والدولي، بل كان جرثومة استشرت في العالم بأكمله، عشرية كذلك في تونس اتسمت باختيارات الولاء النهضاوي (اخواني) وغيره بجميع انواعه اقتصاديا وسياسيا.

وأكّد العميد حاتم مصباح أنّ القرارات الرئاسية والإجراءات التي اتخذها رئيس الجمهورية، كانت قرارات منتظرة كاستجابة إلى تطلّعات الشباب و الشعب التونسي في أغلبه، وهذا ما قاله الرئيس نفسه في الكلمة التي أعلن فيها لحظة اتخاذه لتلك الاجراءات بعد الاجتماع الطارئ الذي عقده مع قيادات أمنية وعسكرية على أعلى مستوى مجلس الأمن القومي، كما أشار السيد حاتم أنّه استند  في قراراته الى الفصل 80 من الدستور الذي يسمح بهذا النوع من التدابير في حالة الخطر الداهم، وما قام به رئيس الجمهورية هو نتيجة لقهر الشعب التونسي لسنوات طويلة في هذه العشرية السوداء.

ونوّه السيد حاتم أنّ الرئيس سعيد قرّر العمل وفق احكام الدستور لاتخاذ تدابير يقتضيها الوضع لانقاذ تونس والمجتمع التونسي مشدّدا على أنّ ماقام به ليس تعليقا للدستور وليس خروجا عن الشرعية الدستورية.

وشدّد العميد حاتم مصباح على أن ما حدث ليلة 25 جويلية 2021 هو استجابة الى التطلعات الشعبية، حيث كانت اللحظة الفارقة لتخليص تونس من هذا الاخطبوط وتصحيح المسار.

كما تحدّث السيد حاتم على الردود العالمية والاقليمية بخصوص الوضع في تونس ومبادئ التعامل الدولي مع تونس، التي احترمت في خارجها الشرعية الدولية وهي ايضا كانت مساندة الى القضايا العالمية وخاصّة القضية الفلسطينية لكن كانت هناك مخاوف حول ردود الفعل والانزلاق الى العنف وهو ما عرفته تونس خلال العشرية السوداء من حكم الاخوان في تونس وهو مالم يحدث بعد قرارات 25 جويلية.

مداخلة رئيس تحرير المركز السيد يوسف عبد الفتاح:

أشار السيد يوسف عبد الفتاح إلى تباين ردود الفعل والمواقف الخارجية بين مؤيد ومعارض من أحداث 25 جويلية، وأكّد على استمرار القيادة في عملية التطهير والتغيير السياسي بمساندة وصمود من الشعب، مشدّدا على عدم تجاهل خروج مئات الآلاف من الشعب التونسي للتنديد بفشل المنظومة وضرورة استبدالها لتأتي قرارات رئيس الجمهورية كاستجابة، ليبصر الشعب نقطة ضوء بعد 10 سنوات من العتمة.

ونوّه السيد يوسف عبد الفتاح أنّه واستنادا الى المثال المصري في التصدي للإخوان، حيث طالب 30 مليون مصري بانهاء نظام الاخوان ليستجيب السيسي لنداءات الجماهير، ليصدح الرأي العام الأمريكي ليصف ما حدث بالانقلاب ليتداركوا الأمر لأنّه لا يمكن معارضة إرادة  30مليون مصري .

وقال السيد يوسف: ” أمّا بالنسبة للقطر الليبي الشقيق كان واضحا وصريحا بالمساندة مثله مثل الموقف المصري الداعم للتجربة في تونس، وكذلك الموقف الجزائري المعلن عنه خلال البيان المشترك خلال زيارة وزير الخارجية الجزائري للرئيس المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي”.

 وأشار السيد يوسف أنّه على عكس الموقفين السابقين تلقّت تونس موجة انتقادات من أطراف سياسية      وإعلامية كالجانب القطري والتركي، التي قامت بتحريك أذرعها وأجنداتها الإعلامية للشكيك في الموقف الجماهيري بالبلاد لإدراكها أن معركة الاخوان في شمال افريقيا تتحدّد في تونس، والذي ماثله  دعمه الموقف التركي المماثل الانتماء، من خلال مكالمة جمعت الرئيس التونسي بنظيره التركي ونُصح الأخير بعودة البرلمان والذي في باطنه يخفي رغبة في عودة رئيس البرلمان “الغنوشي” لتكون نقطة استحواذ من جديد.

وأعرب السيد يوسف أنّه صار جليّا للرأي العام التونسي، أنّ معارك الإخوان الحقيقية في تونس انطلقت من سياسة التفقير وصولا إلى ربط شبكات دوليّة مع اطراف ذي انتماءات إخوانية،  كما عبّر السيد يوسف بأنّ عصارة هذه المواقف هي البوصلة التي يتمّ تعديلها من وقت لآخر في سبيل إقامة جمهورية ثالثة استنادا لمواقف وقوى دوليّة تقدّمية لاسترجاع السيادة والسير بالبلاد نحو التقدّم.

مداخلة السيد حسام ابراهيم

من جانبه أعرب السيد حسام ابراهيم، نائب المدير التنفيذي لمركز المستقبل للأبحاث والدراسات المتقدّمة، عن ارتباط قرارات الرئيس سعيد بموقف الادارة الأمريكية برئاسة بايدن، وأنّ موافقتها الضمنية والمشروطة جعلت الموقف يتغيّر من الحديث عن “انقلاب” مزعوم، حسب ما روّجت له حركة النهضة الإخوانية، إلى محاولة التركيز على المسار الديمقراطي ومرحلة ما بعد 25 يوليو.

وأوعز حسام ابراهيم اهتمام ادارة بايدن لمجريات الأحداث الحاصلة في تونس الى الجوانب التالية:

 أولا، أنّ الحفاظ على المصالح الأمريكية كان الخيار الأول الذي وجب التركيز عليه، لما لتونس من أهميّة استراتيجية في شمال افريقيا ولارتباط المصالح الأمريكية التي تستضيف سفارتها بتونس “مكتب ليبيا الخارجي”، حيث يدير ويتعامل مع الكثير من الملفات والبرامج الأمريكية المرتبطة بليبيا.

وثانيا، أكّد حسام ابراهيم على أنّ توجهات إدارة بايدن الداعمة للديمقراطية مرتبطة تماما بالتركيز الأمريكي لمجريات الأحداث في تونس.

فمنذ وصول بايدن إلى البيت الأبيض في يناير 2021 ، وتحظى قضايا دعم الديمقراطية وحقوق الإنسان أولوية عليا لسياسته الخارجية، ومن هذا المنطلق، فإنّ تطورات الوضع الراهن في تونس، والتي تراها بعض الدوائر الليبرالية والحقوقية في واشنطن خطراً على التجربة الديمقراطية هناك، قد دفعت بعض الكتابات إلى القول إن ما يحدث هو اختبار لأجندة بايدن الديمقراطية.

أما الجانب الثالث فهو رؤية الليبراليين للتجربة التونسية، حيث يُنظر إلى التجربة التونسية داخل الدوائر الليبرالية في واشنطن باعتبارها نموذجاً ناجحاً للتحول الديمقراطي بعد ما يُسمى بـ “ثورات الربيع العربي”.

الموقف الأمريكي تأييد ضمني ولكن مشروط..

وأشار السيد حسام ابراهيم أنّه ومنذ إعلان الرئيس سعيد عن قراراته الاستثنائية، تبنّت الإدارة الأمريكية موقفاً يرتكز على عدم اعتبارها هذه القرارات “انقلاباً على الدستور” أو حتى انتقادها، لكنّها استخدمت فقط لغة دبلوماسية تقليدية في التأكيد على أهمية العودة إلى المسار الديمقراطي والاهتمام بحقوق الإنسان.

وأكّد السيد حسام ابراهيم أنّ  تبنّي إدارة الرئيس بايدن موقفاً يعبر عن موافقة ضمنية على قرارات الرئيس قيس سعيد، وعلى الرغم من المحاولات المستميتة من طرف حركة النهضة، لدفع الإدارة الأمريكية نحو توصيف هذه القرارات على أنها “انقلاب”، مشيرا أنّ ما حدث في تونس لا تنطبق عليه الشروط القانونية التي تتبعها وزارة الخارجية الأمريكية لتبني هذا التوصيف المزعوم.

كلمة الصحفي سليم ضيف الله

تحدّث الصحفي التونسي المقيم بأبو ظبي، سليم ضيف الله، على أن الموقف الأمريكي من الأحداث في تونس كان واضحا من خلال ما تمّ نشره على وسائل الاعلام الأمريكية .

وأشار ضيف الله أن تونس بلد يتّسم بالهدوء والامن والأمان، ولكن في العشرية الاخيرة انقلبت الموازين واصبحنا ضمن البلدان التي اتسمت بالعنف والاغتيالات والتغول السياسي، مشدّدا أن قرارات سعيد جاءت واضحة وصريحة حيث أنّ الرئيس تحدّث مرارا على أنّ العودة الى عمل مؤسسات الدولة سيكون في “الوقت المناسب”، وفي تقدير السيد سليم أنّ الوحيد القادر على تحديد الوقت المناسب لاستئناف عمل مؤسسات الدولة هو رئيس الجمهورية.

وأكّد ضيف الله على أنّ الفوز الغير متوقع للرئيس قيس سعيد في انتخابات 2019، كان بمثابة التحضير لمفاجآت قرارات 25 جويلية، وهذا إن دلّ على شيء فيدلّ على تكتيكية العمل  في ادارة الشأن العام للبلاد الذي اتبعه الرئيس منذ تولّيه السلطة.

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